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Capture Price

Volume-weighted average price for a technology

What is it?

The Capture Price is the average price that a generation technology "captures" in the market, weighted by its output each half-hour. Unlike the simple baseload average, it reflects when the technology actually generates.

This is critical for renewable energy economics because wind and solar often generate when prices are lower (due to their own production suppressing prices), a phenomenon called cannibalization.

Formula

Capture Price = Σ(Pricei × Generationi) ÷ Σ(Generationi)

Where:

  • Pricei = Market price in settlement period i
  • Generationi = Technology output in period i (MW)
  • Sum over all periods in the calculation window (day, month, year)

Key Points

Unit

£/MWh

Typical Values

85-95% of baseload (varies by tech)

Calculation

Derived from price + generation data

Technologies

Wind, Solar, Hydro, Nuclear

Example

Consider a simplified day with two periods:

PeriodPrice (£/MWh)Wind Output (MW)Revenue (£)
1 (Low wind)£80100 MW£8,000
2 (High wind)£40400 MW£16,000
Total500 MW£24,000

Baseload Average: (£80 + £40) ÷ 2 = £60/MWh

Capture Price: £24,000 ÷ 500 MWh = £48/MWh

Wind captured only 80% of baseload because it generated more when prices were low.

Why It Matters for PPAs

If you sign a PPA with a fixed strike price of £55/MWh but wind only captures £48/MWh, the generator needs to pay you the £7/MWh difference each month. This is why:

  • Strike prices for wind PPAs are lower than for baseload contracts
  • Shape factors are negotiated upfront and can make or break project economics
  • Cannibalization is expected to worsen as renewable penetration increases

API Endpoint

GET /uk/analytics/capture-price/{year}/{month}

Returns capture prices for wind and solar with shape factors.

{
  "year": 2024,
  "month": 12,
  "baseload_price": 53.20,
  "wind": {
    "capture_price": 48.50,
    "shape_factor": 0.91
  },
  "solar": {
    "capture_price": 45.30,
    "shape_factor": 0.85
  },
  "unit": "GBP/MWh"
}

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